Humanitarian and climate crisis

After prolonged drought, Somalia suffers from floods displacing thousands of people

After Somalia’s prolonged drought since 2021, the country is now confronted with devastating floods caused by torrential rains that began in October this year. The El Niño climate event caused flash floods which affected communities along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The climate event impacts surface temperatures and causes above-average rainfall. According to the Somali Disaster Management Agency, more than 700 000 thousand people were displaced and 96 people killed as of late November. Neighboring countries in the region have also been affected. According to OCHA, the countries most affected include Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Kenya and Sudan.

The floods are considered the most severe in decades. The events are adding to the already-existing humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, a quarter of Somalia’s population is at risk of crisis-level hunger or worse this year due to the droughts and floods. The continuing climate shocks which Somalia is facing will worsen the hunger crisis in Somalia and prevent Somalia’s ability to recover.

November 2023

Security

November 2023 – Somalia’s President sets one-year deadline to eliminate Al Shabaab

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has communicated a one year target to expel Al Shabaab from the country during a Royal United Services Institute meeting in London in November. The remaining African Union peacekeeping forces (ATMIS) have a deadline to leave the country by December 2024. ATMIS was focusing on eliminating Al Shabaab in the country and now Somalia has one year to do so, until the ATMIS leave the country.

United Nations Security Council lifts arms embargo in Somalia

On December 1st, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously voted to remove the arms embargo on the Federal Government of Somalia, which was in place for more than 30 years. In June and October 2023, the UNSC held briefings on the situation in Somalia. Many important topics were discussed, including switching to a presidential system, and instituting a one-person, one-vote system. Among the most intriguing discussions was the possibility of lifting the arms embargo on Somalia. The arms embargo in Somalia, which was imposed in 1992 as a reaction to the humanitarian situation, restricted the import and export of weapons to prevent the flow of arms to various terrorist factions and promote stability in the region but it also prevented the selling of most weapons to government forces.

By lifting the arms embargo, the Council recognizes the security threats the Federal Government of Somalia is facing and also acknowledges the benchmarks reached to implement the security transition. The Council encourages the effective management of weapons by Somalia in order to reduce the ability of Al Shabaab and other actors to obtain illicit weapons and ammunition. The access to weapons, ammunition and military equipment will allow the Somali National Army to adequately equip itself, especially as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) draws down and is set to leave in 2024.

The lifting of Somalia's arms embargo constitutes a big step toward stability, progress, and autonomy. The lifting of the embargo may benefit national security, economic prosperity, and international relations. However, difficulties such as security threats and governance issues persist. One big concern is that eliminating the embargo will make it easier for insurgent organizations to obtain weapons. Somalia must maintain its commitment to good governance, transparency, and human rights in order to secure long-term peace and growth. This event represents a significant stride forward for the country's future, as well as an opportunity to move beyond its history of violence and instability.