Humanitarian and Climate Crisis

Ongoing crisis due to floodings

Somalia suffered back-to-back extreme climatic shocks in 2023. The worst drought in 40 years preceded once-in-a century floods due to El-Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These climatic events continue to have consequences in 2024. Over 58% of internal displacement recorded between January 1 until present has been attributed to floods. An alarming 71% of IDPs indicated that food was their priority need on arrival. In addition, Belet Weyne, Afgooye and Buurhakaba have seen a spike in acute watery diarrhoea and cholera cases largely attributed to the floods in that region. As of 25 February, at least 3,365 cases have been recorded, of which 59% were classified as severe and 60% concerned children under the age of 5. Cases are expected to rise in April as more heavy rains and floods are anticipated during Gu season.

Security and Political Tensions

Political tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia arise after announcement of Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland

On 1 January 2024, Somaliland and Ethiopia announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), an agreement established between the two parties, in which Ethiopia would have access to 20 kilometers of land on Somaliland’s Red Sea coast for naval and commercial purposes. In Ethiopia’s point of view, having access to a coastline, having maritime access is a "matter of survival", due to the debt crisis the country is currently in. The deal came a few days after the Somali and Somaliland governments reunited in Djibouti to discuss the possibility of peace deals and unity.

Sheikh Hassan Mohamud, the President of Somalia, voiced opposition to the MoU, claiming that it breaches the nation territorial integrity and sovereignty. He emphasized Somalia readiness to safeguard its sovereignty against what he described as Ethiopia "aggression".

In addition, Al-Shabaab, the militant Islamist group that has a strong presence in central and southern Somalia, has also condemned the agreement, asserting it as a violation of Somalia sovereignty. The group seeks to mobilize Somalis to defend their territory, potentially leading to heightened attacks against both Somaliland and Ethiopia.

Furthermore, the Somali government has expressed the possibility of the expulsion of Ethiopian troops deployed in the country to fight against Al-Shabaab if the parties proceed with the agreement.

Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia continued as the 37th African Union Summit took place at the African Union (AU) Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. It convened on various dates from the 15th of January to the 18th of February 2024. The last Session occurred on the 17th and 18th of February and comprised all Members State Heads of State.

According to the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General (SRSG) to Somalia, Catriona Laing, matters of tension among the two member states were briefly addressed. and with no major decisions, as it was preferred to remain in the scope of this year’s theme: education, science, and innovation.

Nevertheless, this did not prevent clashes between the two delegations on the 17th of February. The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation claimed that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his accompanying delegation had been prevented from entering the African Union Commission (AUC). Under Sheikh Mahamud’s perspective, the action took course due to his opposition to the MoU. Ethiopia refuted the claim, stating that the Somali delegation security attempted to enter the AUC premises with weapons, which is prohibited unless specifically exempted by the Commission.

Ongoing government operations in the fight against Al Shabaab

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by several Al Shabaab attacks in Somalia. In February this year, at least 10 people were killed in multiple bomb attacks on the Bakara market in Mogadishu, which is the largest market of the city. The group has further claimed responsibility for an attack in February on the General Gordon military base in Mogadishu, as well as a 13-hour siege of the SYL Hotel near government buildings in Mogadishu in March,

killing at least 5 civilians. Al Shabaab has also heightened their attacks across the country during the Holy Month of Ramadan.

Despite the attacks by Al Shabaab, the Somali government has continued its operations against the group. In the second half of March, the Somali government completed operations in Harardhere, Fiiqaay jungle and Waajid town, in which 80 Al Shabaab militants were killed. Special Forces units have also been working to secure Mogadishu and other regional states.